That is true -- like any other insurance policy, it's no more than a crapshoot. There are some instances where it pays off, but the odds are not in your favor.
If I buy an extended warranty for every vehicle I purchase in my lifetime, I'll be out a large pile of cash. If I pay out-of-pocket for repairs on one or two vehicles, I am still money ahead, and by a significant amount.
Incidentally, I am nearing retirement age and have owned several vehicles. I have neither purchased nor needed an extended warranty.
As with anything, it is a personal choice and what's right for one person may not be right for the next. I would rather pay for something if it breaks instead of paying whether it breaks or not.