Quote:
Originally Posted by K-9 Hauler
I don't think I have ever seen a forum thread (I belong to several different automotive forums under different ID's) that has so completely and without question beat a topic to death.
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Just quoting the sales figures. The topic really doesn't die until the sales figures and Toyota says it dies. Its an important topic since even Toyota has limited resources for future R&D. This is a particularly important time for those folks that "need" suvs vs those that just want to be "seen in one".
As the price of gas rises it will become less fashionable to drive an SUV unless its really needed. For those that need one or anticipate needing one, the R&D $ is likely to begin drying up for large SUVs. I suspect it'll be many years before hybrid or alternative energy SUVs meet the needs of the owners of large suvs.
Therefore its likely, as manufacturers begin to more closely examine their product portfolio's and R&D budgets, SUVs are likely to be trimmed in many ways. Number of models, number of years between refreshes, number of years between complete model overhauls. Essentially we'll be back in the business model of the 70's and 80's where the only folks buying Suburbans were those that needed them. Volumes were much lower than they are today and so were the number of different models. Suburbans generally went about 10 years between make-overs.
All of these business decisions will matter to current and future Sequoia owners which is what I thought this forum was all about. Toyota has far too many SUV models for a market that is about to change dramatically and they know it as evidenced by the plant slowdowns. As gas prices rise dramatically this Spring (as they always do and will again this year), folks will "really" give a second thought as to whether they "really" need a 13-16mpg full size suv.
As it becomes less "PC" to own a full-size suv (as it surely will) even the luxury suvs will take a hit as the wealthy move to the next "in" vehicle which is likely to be high end hybrids.
All the more reason why its my belief that Toyota will pull-in its R&D $ and dedicate them to less vehicles in the line-up. Its my guess that the Sequoia will be the only Full-size suv platform in the line-up. Instead of having 6 suv platforms (RAV, FJ, Highlander, 4Runner, Sequoia, LC), Toyota will trim the menu to 5 or possibly 4 suv platforms to better reflect the US market realities. Since the Sequoia/Tundra platform has a substantially larger market in the US than the LC/LX platform, there will be alot of financial incentives for Lexus to leverage the Sequoia platform into a high-end product while Toyota showrooms reduce floorspace for the non-existent sales of LCs.
Its my guess that a high end Sequoia would be a significant success and sell far more units than the current LX570. Time will tell if my assessment is correct.